Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
